El Niño expected to peak in December, bringing hotter weather to Maldives in early 2027

The Maldives is expected to experience above-normal temperatures during the first four months of 2027 as El Niño strengthens and reaches its peak in December, according to the Maldives Meteorological Service (Met Office).

Speaking on PSM's Raajje Miadhu programme on Thursday evening, Met Office meteorologist Hussain Waheed said El Niño was forecast to peak in December, coinciding with the transition between the southwest and northeast monsoons.

He said the northeast monsoon, which typically begins in January, could bring hotter and drier conditions than usual, with increased heat expected between January and April.

"El Niño is expected to peak in December. December is also the period when the two monsoons change. The northeast monsoon will begin in January," Waheed said.

"Rainfall will continue in December, but it will begin to decrease in January. As we approach April, there will be more hot days than rainy days, and the heat will become more noticeable."

El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It affects atmospheric circulation and weather patterns across different parts of the world.

The phenomenon generally occurs every two to seven years and can contribute to changes in rainfall, drought conditions, flooding and ocean temperatures.

Waheed said the Maldives already experiences hotter conditions during the northeast monsoon, but the effects of El Niño could make the coming season more severe.

"These are conditions we experience every year. However, this year, we expect El Niño to make the situation worse," he said.

According to Waheed, the effects of El Niño are already being felt in the Maldives.

He said the heat index, which measures how hot conditions feel when humidity is taken into account, had exceeded 40 degrees Celsius on some days in recent weeks.

He also noted that temperatures can feel considerably higher during periods without rainfall.

"El Niño is expected to peak as the northeast monsoon begins. Therefore, we expect the heat index to increase during January, February, March and April," he said.

The Met Office is preparing measures to address the expected rise in temperatures, including the introduction of heat forecasts and alerts.

Waheed said the agency was making arrangements to begin issuing temperature forecasts from January to help the public prepare for hotter conditions.

He explained that the Met Office intends to issue heat alerts in a manner similar to its existing weather warnings during periods of heavy rain.

The alerts would provide advance notice of unusually hot conditions, allowing individuals and relevant authorities to take precautionary measures.

Waheed said the forecasts and warnings would help the public prepare for the potential effects of prolonged heat during the northeast monsoon.

The Met Office's warning comes as El Niño is expected to influence weather conditions in the Maldives during the transition into 2027, potentially increasing the frequency of hot days and reducing rainfall during the first four months of the year.