Extreme heat could cost Maldives $576 million annually by 2040, ILO warns

Rising temperatures could result in annual productivity losses equivalent to USD 576 million in the Maldives by 2040, while heat stress could affect the equivalent of approximately 2,400 full-time jobs, according to a new study by the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The study, released on Thursday, warns that climate change and increasing workplace temperatures are already affecting workers, businesses and economic productivity in the Maldives and Sri Lanka.

It projects that the economic consequences of heat stress will increase over the next decade as temperatures continue to rise.

Across the two countries, heat-related productivity losses could affect the equivalent of approximately 147,000 full-time jobs by 2040.

The ILO said the losses would result primarily from reductions in working hours as workers face increasing physical strain and health risks from high temperatures.

The study also found that the effects would remain significant even under a low-emissions pathway, highlighting the need for measures to protect workers from rising temperatures.

According to the ILO's projections, the Maldives could lose the equivalent of approximately 2,400 full-time jobs to heat stress by 2040.

The resulting annual loss in economic output is estimated at USD 576 million.

In Sri Lanka, heat stress could affect the equivalent of approximately 145,000 full-time jobs, with projected annual productivity losses of USD 26 billion.

The study identified agriculture as the sector most exposed to heat-related productivity losses in Sri Lanka, followed by construction and manufacturing.

In the Maldives, the service and construction sectors are expected to experience the greatest impact.

The ILO said workers in these sectors face increased exposure to high temperatures, particularly those whose jobs require physical activity or extended periods outdoors.

The study found that the economic consequences of rising temperatures are not limited to future projections.

According to the ILO, workplace heat stress had already reduced working hours and affected economic output in both countries in 2023, compared with the 1985–2014 reference period.

The organisation warned that without measures to address workplace heat exposure, workers would face increasing health risks while businesses could experience further reductions in productivity.

"These findings make clear that heat stress is already affecting workers, businesses and economies in Sri Lanka and the Maldives," said Joni Simpson, the ILO's Director for Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

"Protecting workers from heat stress must be part of how we think about occupational safety and health, climate adaptation and economic resilience."

Simpson said cooperation between governments, employers and workers, including through social dialogue, could help develop measures that protect livelihoods and health while maintaining productivity.

The study identified several measures to reduce the effects of heat stress on workers and businesses.

These include adjusting working hours to avoid the hottest periods of the day and introducing work-rest schedules that allow employees to take breaks when exposed to high temperatures.

The ILO also recommended providing shaded areas, access to drinking water and cooling facilities at workplaces.

Other recommendations include strengthening workplace temperature monitoring, improving occupational safety and health standards, and increasing awareness of heat-related risks among workers and employers.

The study also highlighted the importance of social protection for workers who cannot reduce their working hours without losing income.

According to the ILO, such measures would help protect workers' health while limiting the economic consequences of reduced productivity.

The findings come amid growing concerns about rising temperatures and the availability of shade in the Maldives.

Members of the public have expressed concern over the removal of mature trees that provide shade, as increasing temperatures make outdoor conditions more difficult.

The ILO's findings highlight the importance of addressing heat exposure as part of workplace safety and broader climate adaptation measures, particularly in sectors where workers spend extended periods outdoors.