Beyond bans: How leading nations are actually reducing smoking rates?

For decades, the global public health playbook on smoking was identical regardless of the country: increase taxes, restrict sales, and enforce bans. While these measures had some effect, the decline in smoking rates often plateaued, leaving millions unable or unwilling to quit.

However, in the last ten years, a distinct group of developed nations has broken away from the traditional prohibition-only model. By embracing technology and regulating—rather than banning—less harmful alternatives, countries like New Zealand, Japan, and Sweden are achieving what was once thought impossible: the rapid decline of cigarette consumption.

Perhaps the most aggressive shift has occurred in New Zealand. Known for its ambitious "Smokefree 2025" goal, the country realized early on that taxation alone wouldn't work for hardcore smokers.

Instead of banning vapes, New Zealand’s Ministry of Health took a pragmatic stance, actively positioning vaping as a tool for cessation. The results have been stark. According to the latest New Zealand Health Survey data (2023/24), the daily smoking rate has plummeted to approximately 6.8%—nearly half of what it was a decade ago.

The correlation is difficult to ignore: as vaping rates have risen, smoking rates have fallen. By ensuring adult smokers have legal access to regulated vapes, New Zealand has accelerated its progress far faster than nations relying solely on "quit or die" mandates.

While New Zealand leaned into vaping, Japan offers a different case study driven by heated tobacco products. Since the introduction of these devices—which heat tobacco rather than burning it—the Japanese cigarette market has undergone a collapse unprecedented in speed.

Between 2011 and 2023, cigarette sales in Japan dropped by over 50%. Independent studies and market data suggest that this decline wasn't driven by strict government bans (which remain relatively loose in Japan compared to Europe) but by consumer choice. When smokers were offered a less intrusive, smoke-free alternative that mimicked the ritual of smoking, millions switched voluntarily.

The Japanese model highlights a crucial lesson for policymakers: when technology offers a viable off-ramp from combustion, consumers will take it.

In Europe, the United Kingdom and Sweden stand out as the primary outliers in a region that is otherwise hostile to harm reduction.

Sweden is on the brink of becoming the world’s first official "smoke-free" country (defined as less than 5% daily smoking prevalence). This success is largely attributed to snus and, more recently, nicotine pouches. These oral products have allowed Swedish men to have the lowest rates of lung cancer in the EU, despite having nicotine consumption levels similar to their European neighbors.

Similarly, the UK has launched the world’s first national "Swap to Stop" scheme, providing one million smokers with vape starter kits. It is a tacit admission by the British government that while nicotine is addictive, it is the smoke that kills—and policy should reflect that distinction.

These four nations—diverse in culture and geography—share a common policy thread. They have moved beyond the simple binary of "legal vs. banned."

Instead, they have adopted a risk-proportionate regulatory framework. They tax and regulate the most harmful product (cigarettes) the most strictly, while ensuring that reduced-risk alternatives (vapes, heated tobacco, and pouches) remain accessible and affordable for adults trying to quit.

As the data from Wellington to Tokyo suggests, the fastest way to a smoke-free future isn't necessarily forcing smokers to stop, but giving them a better way to continue without the smoke.