Maldives records above-average sea and air temperatures as El Niño strengthens

Sea surface and air temperatures across the Maldives remained above average in September as El Niño conditions strengthened, according to the Maldives Meteorological Service (Met Office).

In its latest climate update, the Met Office reported that sea surface temperatures had been rising since June, with several areas recording temperatures more than 1°C above the long-term average in September. Some locations experienced increases exceeding 2°C.

The report also indicated that much of the Maldives experienced above-average air temperatures between January and September 2026.

The Met Office said El Niño conditions were expected to reach their peak in December, with international meteorological agencies forecasting further changes in global temperatures and weather patterns.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon associated with rising sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It can influence rainfall and weather conditions across different regions, contributing to periods of higher temperatures, drought, heavy rainfall and tropical storms.

Scientists have warned that rising ocean temperatures can intensify some of these impacts.

According to the Met Office, the main potential effects on the Maldives include higher sea temperatures, coral bleaching, disruption to fisheries and changes in rainfall patterns.

The climate update showed that air temperatures in several parts of the country were above the 1991–2020 average during the first nine months of 2026.

The highest temperature anomaly was recorded in July at Hanimaadhoo in Haa Dhaalu Atoll, where temperatures were 2°C above the long-term average.

Temperatures in the Malé region were also approximately 1°C above average between July and September.

Rainfall patterns varied across the country during the same period, with some areas recording considerably higher rainfall and others experiencing below-average precipitation.

Hanimaadhoo recorded 243 millimetres more rainfall than average in May, while Addu received 287 millimetres above its September average.

However, rainfall at Kaadedhdhoo in Gaafu Dhaalu Atoll was 155 millimetres below average in January. Hanimaadhoo also recorded a rainfall deficit of 173 millimetres in July.

The Met Office said these variations highlighted changes in rainfall distribution across the Maldives compared with the 1991–2020 reference period.

The climate update also identified several risks associated with the changing conditions.

It warned that continued increases in sea surface temperatures could affect coral reef ecosystems, including through coral bleaching and coral mortality. Regular monitoring of ocean conditions was recommended to assess potential impacts on marine life.

Higher air temperatures could also increase the risk of heat stress, particularly among children and people with existing health conditions.

The Met Office further cautioned that changes in rainfall patterns could result in sudden heavy rainfall and flooding in some areas, while other locations could experience prolonged periods of limited rainfall.

The findings underline the need to monitor sea temperatures, rainfall and heat-related risks as climate conditions continue to change across the Maldives.